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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.